Fossil Fuel Lifetimes

Conventional Crude Oil Lifetime: A More Realistic Estimate

Input the remaining reserve, consumption rate, and the number of years until peak production.
Remaining Reserve Bbo
Consumption Rate Bbo/yr
Years until peak production years
Press the "Graph it!" button to generate the graphs below.
Suggestions and Questions
  • The default values are from the United States Geological Survey, Department of Energy, and results from Bartlett [1]. Press the "Graph It!" button to generate the graphs.
    With these default values, how many years from the present does it take for the remaining reserve to decrease to zero?
  • Now type the remaining reserve value of 1000 Bbo from Deffeyes, a consumption rate value of 28 Bbo/yr, and 1 year until the peak. Now press the "Graph It!" button.
    With this value of remaining reserves, how many years from the present does it take for the remaining reserve to decrease to zero?
  • The amount of oil estimated to be found in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR) is between 5 and 16 GBo. Add the high value of 16 Bbo to the remaining reserve (whether from the USGS or from Deffeyes) and press the "Graph It!" button.
    What effect does adding the oil from the ANWR have on the number of years until the remaining reserve is zero?

  • What do you think would cause the oil consumption rate to decline as modeled by the bell-shaped (Gaussian) curve shown here?


Graph of Remaining Reserve versus Time



Graph of Consumption Rate versus Time

After generating the graphs, place the cursor over the point where the remaining reserve achieves a value of zero. Then click the left mouse button. A rectangle should appear with two numbers; these numbers are the coordinates of the cursor. The first number is the number of years for the remaining resource to achieve a value of zero.

References

[1] Albert A. Bartlett, "An Analysis of U.S. and World Oil Production Patterns Using Hubbert-Style Curves", Math. Geol. 32 (1), 1-17 (2000).

This page was last updated on 30 July 2004 by E.R. Behringer.